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☆ Goldman says the bear market for battery metal prices is far from over
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( Sam Meredith | Www.Linkedin.Com In Samuelmeredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Goldman Sachs finds it is too early to call an end to a battery raw materials price plunge, warning that significant supply pipelines and Western electric vehicle headwinds could keep prices lower for longer. Goldman Sachs said the outlook appeared bearish for nickel, lithium and cobalt. On a 12-month basis, analysts at Goldman said the Wall Street bank is targeting a 12%, 15% and 25% downside in cobalt, nickel and lithium carbonate, respectively. Lithium prices are down nearly 70%, compared to the same period last year. Nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) were last trading at $17,945 per metric ton on Tuesday, while cobalt prices on the LME stood at $28,550 per metric ton.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Nicholas Snowdon, Goldman Organizations: Western EV, London Metal Exchange Locations: China

☆ LME CEO: We can't be the 'moral arbiter' amid geopolitical rifts
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLME CEO: We can't be the 'moral arbiter' amid geopolitical riftsMatt Chamberlain, CEO of the London Metal Exchange (LME), discusses the impact of various geopolitical tensions and conflicts on metal markets and warehouse practises.

Persons: Chamberlain Organizations: London Metal Exchange

Traders work on the floor of the London Metal Exchange in London, Britain, September 27, 2018. Both explicitly allow for the cancellation of trades "in exceptional cases", which would be a fair description of last year's nickel market meltdown and the resulting threat of multiple member defaults. This is a case of "knowing one when you see one" or "the elephant test" in legal precedent, the judges said. Nor would it have affected Chamberlain's assessment that nickel trading had become irrational and disorderly on the morning of March 8. LME trading has been transformed by the crisis in the form of permanent caps on time-spreads and limits on intraday price movements.

Persons: Simon Dawson, Elliott, Jonathan Swift, Robert Bright, Matthew Chamberlain, Jane Street, Chamberlain, China's, Xiang Guangda, Oliver Wyman, Tsingshan, Barbara Lewis Organizations: London Metal Exchange, REUTERS, London High, Elliott Associates, Jane, Global Trading, Financial, Authority, China's Tsingshan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, U.S

☆ Mining Industry Seeks to Define One Global Standard for Ethical Practices
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( Yusuf Khan | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +6 min

Customers and investors are increasingly considering mining companies’ ESG performance. Photo: douglas magno/Agence France-Presse/Getty ImagesMining giant Anglo American is one of the companies that have been involved in developing the new mining standard. Anglo American itself commits to at least nine different mining standards and is part of 17 industry associations, which all have their own requirements. The LME has been consulted on the development of the new mining standard. For now, work continues on the new mining standard, with the four associations still discussing what it should look like and how it would be governed.

Persons: Cynthia Matonhodze, ”, “, Tracey Kerr, douglas magno, Rebecca Campbell, ” Campbell, Campbell, Paul Hackett, Georgina Hallett, Yusuf Khan Organizations: Bloomberg, International Council, Mining, Metals, Gold Council, Mining Association of Canada, Miners, Business, Global Investor Commission, ING, Jubilee Metals Group, Hochschild, ” Mining, Agence France, Getty, White, London Metal Exchange, REUTERS Locations: Umguza, Zimbabwe, Dutch, Brazil, London, Brumadinho, American, ”

☆ LME appoints new technology manager to strengthen expertise for flagship project
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Traders work on the floor of the London Metal Exchange, in London, Britain September 27, 2018. The LME is the world's largest and oldest forum for metals. Its three-year-long flagship project to overhaul its electronic trading system faces up to a year of further delays and mounting costs, four people with knowledge of the matter told Reuters in October. From Jan. 15, Baldwin will join the LME, succeeding Mario Quonils who has decided to relocate back to Germany, the LME, owned by Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (0388.HK), said in a statement. "Alistair's knowledge and expertise in running in-house technology platforms will prove invaluable in this regard," he added.

Persons: Simon Dawson, Alistair Baldwin, Baldwin, Mario Quonils, Alistair, Richard Leung, Polina Devitt, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: London Metal Exchange, REUTERS, Companies Hong Kong Exchanges, NatWest Markets, Reuters, Hong Kong Exchanges, HK, HKEX Group, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, Germany

A delay in the new mine's ramp-up would add to the growing stresses on the zinc raw materials supply chain. Low prices have resulted in a lengthening list of mine curtailments in recent months, resulting in falling smelter treatment terms and a rising refined zinc price. London Metal Exchange three-month zinc pricePRICE CASUALTIESThe LME zinc price hit a three-year low of $2,215 per metric ton in May, triggering a string of mine closures. By the end of September analysts at Macquarie Bank had already totted up closures totalling 300,000 metric tons of annual zinc capacity. It is designed to churn out around 345,000 metric tons a year of contained zinc, making it the single largest addition to zinc mine supply in 2024.

Persons: Ilya Naymushin, Boliden, Price, it's, David Evans Organizations: REUTERS, London Metal Exchange, Metals, Aeris Resources, Macquarie Bank, Fastmarkets, Study, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Angara, Novoangars, Russia, Swedish, Ireland, Queensland, Western Australia, Portugal, Mexico, Tennessee

☆ Bank of England central counterparty stress tests confirm resilience
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The Bank of England is seen in the City of London, Britain, February 14, 2017. REUTERS/Hannah McKay Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 8 (Reuters) - The Bank of England on Wednesday said results of stress tests on central counterparties (CCPs) showed continued resilience at the businesses, which help clear and settle trades in financial instruments and commodities essential for the global economy. "The results confirm the continued resilience of UK CCPs to market stress scenarios that are of equal and greater severity than the worst-ever historical market stresses," said Sarah Breeden, the BoE's Deputy Governor for Financial Stability. The stress tests covered three central counterparties which operate in Britain, ICE Clear Europe Limited (ICE.N), LCH Limited, a part of LSEG (LSEG.L), and LME Clear Limited, owned by Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd (0388.HK). The BoE said it would use the findings "to support and inform its ongoing supervision and regulation of UK CCPs".

Persons: Hannah McKay, Sarah Breeden, BoE, William James, David Milliken, Sarah Young Organizations: of, City of, REUTERS, Bank of England, Financial Stability, ICE Clear Europe, LCH, LME Clear, Hong Kong Exchanges, Clearing, HK, LME, Thomson Locations: of England, City, City of London, Britain, LSEG, LME Base

Antara Foto/Jojon/via REUTERS Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 1 (Reuters) - The bears are out in force on the London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel market. The global nickel market is entering a period of massive oversupply thanks to an Indonesian production boom. INSG assessed monthly nickel supply-demand balanceBIG SURPLUSThe big short is a bet on a big surplus. The global nickel market moved into supply-demand surplus in May last year and has been there ever since, according to the International Nickel Study Group. The exact timing of that tipping-point is still unknown, which means the big short is still a big bet that the supply chain can close the nickel product gap sooner rather than later.

Persons: Antara, aren't, it's, It's, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: PT Vale Indonesia, REUTERS Acquire, London Metal Exchange, Fund, Investment, Study, EV, Shanghai Futures, GAP Indonesia, Jingmen, New Energy Science, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Sorowako, South Sulawesi, Indonesia, Indonesian, London

REUTERS/Claro Cortes/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 30 (Reuters) - China's imports of tin concentrates collapsed in September, reflecting the suspension of mining activity in the semi-autonomous Wa state in neighbouring Myanmar. China's imports of tin concentrates from Myanmar and other sourcesIMPORT SLUMPChina imported 7,300 metric tons of tin concentrates in September, which was the lowest monthly count since February 2019. Imports from Myanmar slumped to just 1,421 metric tons after a mini surge over July and August ahead of the mining ban. The Myanmar ban has to date had little impact on either China's production of refined tin or the tin price. The boom in tin usage for home electronics during lockdown in 2020-2021 has given way to a prolonged downturn.

Persons: Claro, that's, Jan Harvey Organizations: REUTERS, United Wa State Army, Democratic, London Metal Exchange, International Tin Association, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, Claro Cortes, Wa, Myanmar, China, Tanintharyi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Bolivia, Brazil, Russia

The project to revamp the LME's electronic system was due to go live in June this year. Sources said the front-end trading platform developed by U.S.-based Trading Technologies does not work for the complicated structure of contracts on the LME. In response to a request for comment, Trading Technologies said: "We would defer to the LME on this." The problem comes from the LME's unique date structure which allows trading for any day between the cash contract and the benchmark three-month forward. One important aspect, the LME said, is aligning its platform with other exchanges.

Persons: Peter Nicholls, Pratima Desai, David Evans Organizations: London Metal Exchange, City of, REUTERS, Companies Hong Kong Exchanges, Trust, Hong Kong Exchanges, HK, U.S, Technologies, Trading Technologies, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain

REUTERS/Ilya Naymushin - S1AETWEXAZAA Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 27 (Reuters) - China's exports of refined lead hit a 15-month high in September with year-to-date shipments already exceeding last year's total. China's net trade in refined leadEXPORTS ACCELERATEChina exported 35,400 metric tons of refined lead in September, which was the highest monthly tally since June of last year. LME lead three-month price, cash-3s spread and stocksLME STOCKS REBUILDThe relocation of stocks from China to the West has seen LME stocks rebuild from their depleted year-start levels. Headline stocks of 125,225 metric tons are up by 100,075 metric tons on January and are the highest they've been in almost three years. The LME stocks rebuild has been driven by repeated bouts of tightness across the front part of the forward curve in recent months.

Persons: Ilya Naymushin, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, London Metal Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Shanghai, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Novoangarsk, Russia, China, Shanghai, Europe, Stolberg, Germany, Taiwan, South Korea, Thursday's, London

Zinc's relative under-performance is down to a build-up of excess metal as the global market shifts from supply shortfall to widening surplus. It now thinks zinc supply will exceed usage by a hefty 248,000 tonnes with the surplus growing to 367,000 in 2024. Zinc market balance forecasts by the ILZSGSHIFT TO SURPLUSThe zinc market's shift to surplus after two years of supply deficit is down to weaker-than-expected demand and higher-than-expected production. European demand is expected to contract by 1.8% this year due to slowing activity in the construction sector, which accounts for around half of zinc demand in the form of galvanised steel. LME zinc price, stocks and cash-3s spreadNOW YOU SEE IT...

Persons: LME, Barbara Lewis Organizations: Reuters, REUTERS, OZ Minerals, London Metal Exchange, Citi, Thomson Locations: Lawn Hill, Queensland, Europe, China, New Orleans, United States, Singapore, Malaysia's Port Klang

The future may be bright and electric but copper and the rest of the LME metals are currently caught in an old-fashioned industrial downturn. Such "green" investment appears to be acting as a major offset to the downturn in the traditional metals demand driver that is the commercial property market. MIXED SIGNALSThe energy transition and the resulting booster to metals demand was the core talking-point at this year's collective LME Week discussions. Yet the LME metals have not yet escaped the gravitational pull of the traditional industry cycle. But most visitors to LME Week will have returned home braced for more short-term price weakness.

Persons: Ruben Sprich, Max Layton, Tin, Jeremy Pearce, Jorge Vazquez, Jim Lennon, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Metal Exchange, Citi, International Tin Association, HIT, Study, GREEN, Groups, European Union, Producers, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Thoerishaus, Bern, London, Macquarie, China, Europe, North America, Indonesia, GREEN CHINA, China . China, United States

Traders work on the floor of the London Metal Exchange in London, Britain, September 27, 2018. Rebuilding the London nickel contract is clearly very much work in progress. FIXING NICKELOthers, meanwhile, are looking to muscle into the LME's nickel price discovery domain. The Shanghai market also took a big collateral hit from the London turmoil, volumes on its nickel contract collapsing by 53% last year relative to 2021. The blow-out of the nickel contract and the resulting near-death experience of both brokers and exchange have sapped confidence in the historical market of last resort.

Persons: Simon Dawson, Elliott, Nicolas Aguzin, Matthew Chamberlain, hasn't, it's, Ireland's, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: London Metal Exchange, REUTERS, U.S, Elliott Associates, Jane, Trading, Hong Kong Exchanges, HK, Bloomberg, London, Global Commodities Holdings, Abaxx Commodities Exchange, Canadian, Technologies Inc, Shanghai Futures Exchange, EV, CME, Reuters, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, London's, China, Shanghai, U.S

☆ Global miner BHP to focus on cost cuts, patient on M&A
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Melanie Burton | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

MELBOURNE (Reuters) -Global miner BHP Group is focused on cutting costs to drive growth while being patient on buying assets, its chief development officer Johan van Jaarsveld said on Thursday in Melbourne. A view of a new nickel sulphate plant that global miner BHP Group is building to service the battery industry at its Nickel West operations, south of Perth, Australia August 2, 2019. REUTERS/Melanie Burton/File photo“This is a cyclical industry, and you sometimes are going to have to wait for 10 years or may be more to get the right opportunity at the right price,” van Jaarsveld said. “BHP’s Oz Minerals Brazil is not on the market,” van Jaarsveld said. We are looking at what we have got,” adding “you don’t want to sell assets, potentially and then somebody else make a big discovery.”

Persons: Johan van Jaarsveld, Melanie Burton, ” van Jaarsveld, Van Jaarsveld, ”, you’ve, you’re, “ Organizations: MELBOURNE, Global, BHP, REUTERS, Teck Resources, Oz Minerals Locations: Melbourne, Perth, Australia, Tanzanian, Indonesia, Teck, Queensland, Brazil, Oz, Oz Minerals Brazil

REUTERS/Yusuf Ahmad/File Photo - RC2DGT9XQ73M Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Global nickel production will outpace demand to the tune of 239,000 metric tons next year, according to the International Nickel Study Group (INSG). The cumulative forecast surplus of 566,000 metric tons over the three years is huge relative to the size of the nickel market. Global consumption this year is expected to come in at 3.2 million metric tons. The mining rush fed an 85% jump in production of intermediate products such as nickel pig iron (NPI) and nickel matte and a 20% rise in primary nickel products such as sulphate. But rising global production is also increasingly about China, which lifted its primary nickel production by 18% year-on-year in January-July.

Persons: Yusuf Ahmad, it's, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Study, Global, London Metal Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Investor, EV, Macquarie Bank, Traders, London, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Lisbon, London, Indonesia, China, Shanghai

Last trading at $7,990 per metric ton, London copper is now within sight of the year-to-date lows of $7,867-7,871 recorded in late May. Investment fund positioning on CME copper contractBEARS FLEX MUSCLES ON CMEFund positioning on the CME copper contract has oscillated between long and short for several months as the price chopped around in a sideways range. Outright long copper positions have been slashed from 63,665 contracts at the start of September to 35,050 as of the Sept. 26 close. Net positioning has shifted to a collective short of 3,051 contracts, just shy of the 3,228-contract peak 2023 short in June. It's worth noting that the "other financial" reporting category, which includes index funds, is still in modest net long territory.

Persons: Kim Hong, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: REUTERS, Fund, London Metal Exchange, Investors, Investment, CME, Bulls, Reuters, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: Gunsan, South Korea, London, U.S, United States, Tuesday's

REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Sept 27 (Reuters) - China's appetite for base metal imports appears to be growing. FROM RUSSIA WITH LOVEChina's imports of primary aluminium surged to a near two-year high of 153,000 metric tons in August, bringing the year-to-date count to 755,000 metric tons. SLOW COPPER BOAT TO SHANGHAIRefined copper imports were 340,000 metric tons in August, the highest monthly tally this year. The country's refined zinc trade has reverted to net imports this year but volumes remain modest by historical standards. SHIFTING THE NICKEL MIXThere has been no pick-up in China's imports of refined nickel.

Persons: Florence Lo, they've, They've, China's, David Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Shanghai Futures Exchange, London Metal Exchange, LOVE, Malaysian, New, Democratic, China's CMOC, Reuters, Thomson Locations: China, contango, Shanghai, RUSSIA, U.S, New Zealand, SHANGHAI, Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC, Indonesia

☆ China may finally nick some metals clout from LME
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Chan Ka Sing | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The debacle has undermined the venue’s benchmark status in the pricing of nickel, which is essential for making electric vehicles. LME’s trading volumes of the element were down 40% in July from a year earlier. That’s probably why the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) is now planning its own nickel futures contract for international use, Reuters reported on Sept. 13. For the Shanghai exchange, venturing in the opposite route could also prove difficult. CONTEXT NEWSThe Shanghai Futures Exchange is planning to launch a nickel futures contract for international use, Reuters reported on Sept. 13.

Persons: Tsingshan, ShFE, HKEx, Lisa Jucca, Katrina Hamlin Organizations: Reuters, Hong Kong Exchanges, HK, London Metal Exchange, Asian bourse, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, British, China, Beijing, Indonesia, Shanghai

REUTERS/Beawiharta Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Sept 20 (Reuters) - London Metal Exchange (LME) stocks of tin have grown steadily over the summer months and have reached levels last seen in April 2020. Around half of the tin produced every year is used as a soldering material on circuit boards, linking usage to the fortunes of the consumer electronics sector. Global semiconductor sales from SIABOOM AND BUSTTin's fortunes are closely tied to the consumer electronics sector, which has experienced a remarkable boom-and-bust cycle over the last three years. That translated into a boom year for tin demand, usage growing by 7.6%, led by a 12.2% rise in the soldering sector, according to the International Tin Association. However, global semiconductor sales have registered small month-on-month increases since April and the year-on-year gap narrowed to 11.8% in July, according to the SIA.

Persons: Lockdowns, Boom, Barbara Lewis Organizations: PT Timah, REUTERS, London Metal Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, SIA, Semiconductor, Semiconductor Industry Association, International Tin Association, World Semiconductor Trade Statistics, Wa State, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Mentok, Indonesian, Bangka, Myanmar, London, Shanghai, Wa, China

LME copper stocks and Cash-3s time-spreadSUMMER SURGEAlmost 100,000 metric tons of copper have been warranted in the LME warehouse network since the middle of July, lifting headline stocks to 149,600 metric tons. European inflows have been split between Rotterdam (19,325 metric tons) and the German port of Hamburg (9,850). The CME's delivery locations, however, don't include Mobile, Alabama, where LME copper stocks have grown to 1,925 metric tons. The amount of cancelled stock awaiting physical load-out from the LME warehouse system currently stands at a minimal 225 metric tons. LME, LME shadow, CME, ShFE and INE copper stocksCHINA OFFSETThe copper stocks surge has to date been largely confined to the LME delivery system.

Persons: Emelia Sithole Organizations: London Metal Exchange, Mobile, CME, Shanghai Futures Exchange, International Energy Exchange, Shanghai, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Europe, United States, China, Rotterdam, Hamburg, Asia, Kaohsiung, Busan, New Orleans, Mobile , Alabama, London, ShFE, CHINA

A company logo of Shanghai Futures Exchange is displayed at a booth during LME Week Asia in Hong Kong, China June 14, 2016. REUTERS/Bobby Yip Acquire Licensing RightsBEIJING/LONDON, Sept 13 (Reuters) - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) is looking into the possible launch of nickel futures for international use, a potential challenge to the London Metal Exchange's (LME) contract, five sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. Average daily LME nickel volumes plunged because of the crisis. CME Group (CME.O) is also looking to launch a nickel contract that would settle against prices gathered from a platform to be launched by British-based Global Commodities Holdings (GCH). CME did not respond to a request for an update on its plans for a nickel contract.

Persons: Bobby Yip, ShFE, Nickel, GCH, Pratima Desai, Siyi Liu, Julian Luk, Veronica Brown, Alexander Smith Organizations: Shanghai Futures, REUTERS, Rights, Shanghai Futures Exchange, London, Reuters, International Energy Exchange, CME, Global Commodities Holdings, Thomson Locations: Asia, Hong Kong, China, Rights BEIJING, LONDON, British, Singapore, Abaxx

China has stepped up domestic output of refined zinc this year, but the Shanghai market continues to be plagued by low inventory and tight time-spreads. China's imports, exports and net trade in refined zincRETURN TO THE IMPORT MARKETChina was a consistent net importer of refined zinc over the last decade, but that changed in 2022. Shanghai zinc stocks seasonal patterns over 2020-2023LOW INVENTORYShFE registered stocks stand at a modest 43,181 tons. Sentiment, however, holds the real key to the Shanghai premium. The country's trade in refined zinc may prove a useful mirror on that question over the next few months.

Persons: Cash, It's, Jan Harvey Organizations: Share, Shanghai Futures Exchange, London Metal Exchange, Shanghai Metal, Citi, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Eritrea's, Asmara, Eritrea, China, Shanghai, Europe, Turkey, U.S, Antwerp, Singapore, Malaysia's Port Klang, Kaohsiung, Guangdong, London

Lead market dynamics are currently tepid at best due to weakness in the automotive sector, which accounts for around 70% of total demand in the form of lead-acid batteries. But some of that surplus would be very welcome right now in Shanghai, since the local market is in the grips of a vicious short squeeze. ShFE price, stocks and market open interestBIG SHORTThis Shanghai lead squeeze has been building for a couple of months. ShFE time-spreads were already tightening up in July against a backdrop of low exchange stocks and rising open interest. After exporting surplus metal for two years, the Chinese market seems to be struggling to find enough to deliver into the Shanghai squeeze.

Persons: Darren Whiteside, that's, Emelia Sithole Organizations: REUTERS, Shanghai Futures Exchange, London Metal Exchange, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Bogor, Jakarta, Indonesia, Shanghai, China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Bangladesh, London

Singapore's Abaxx Commodities Exchange thinks a new nickel sulphate contract could be the answer. The sulphate market has been forecast by research house Roskill to grow at an annual rate of 22% over the current decade as the green mobility revolution accelerates. China's imports of nickel sulphateTRADE BOOMChina's surging imports of nickel sulphate are a reflection of the product's stunning growth as battery cathode input. China's nickel imports by product 2020-2023PRICING PROBLEMSNone of this new Indonesia-China nickel trade has a natural exchange pricing home. LME nickel trading volumes have stabilised but are still running significantly below levels seen prior to the March 2022 trading halt.

Persons: Antara, It's, Roskill, Mike Harrison Organizations: PT Vale Indonesia, REUTERS Acquire, London Metal Exchange, Abaxx Commodities, Canadian, Technologies, Shanghai Futures Exchange, EV, Imports, China's, Class, Global Commodity Holdings, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Sorowako, South Sulawesi, Indonesia, China, Finland, South Africa, South Korea

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